The Situation Of Acrylic Fiber Production Is Not Optimistic In The First Half Of 2010.

　 Enter 2010, due to raw material The price of acrylonitrile is too high, and the price of acrylic products is restricted by downstream enterprises, so it can not rise as a result. Several enterprises have reduced production or stopped production and maintenance. The production situation of the acrylic fiber industry is not optimistic, and the economic benefits are not satisfactory.

Output: a slight decrease

Of all the main chemical fiber varieties, only the output of acrylic fiber was negative, and the output of 1~5 was 276 thousand and 400 tons in the month of 1~5, representing a decrease of 0.43% compared with the same period last year, which is obviously lower than that of the total output of chemical fiber. The negative growth of acrylic fiber production is mainly due to the influence of acrylonitrile. Due to the fast rising of acrylonitrile price in the second half of 2009, acrylonitrile plants without acrylonitrile have been cut down or even stopped.

Completion of chemical fiber production in 1~5 2010

1~5 months (10000 tons) last year (10000 tons) year-on-year increase or decrease (%)

Total chemical fiber 1199.441035.2515.86%

Synthetic fiber 1096.77952.1415.19%

Acrylic 27.6427.76-0.43%

By rights, C Alkene The price of acrylonitrile is rising. The price of acrylic fiber can be increased synchronously. However, the price of acrylic fiber is restricted by many factors, especially the replacement of other synthetic fiber products. This virtually reduces the competitiveness of acrylic products, prompting some enterprises to reduce the operating rate, and the output will naturally drop. Even if the enterprises that can start up at present are full load production, but the total capacity is limited, the output can only be reduced year by year. (it is understood that since the second quarter of 2010, Jilin Qifeng polyacrylonitrile plant) has also carried out a small-scale production and maintenance plan, and the total amount of acrylic fiber has decreased to a certain extent over the same period last year. (Note: the above data are from the National Bureau of statistics. It is understood that there is a certain discrepancy between the data and the actual situation. )

Market: apparent demand rebound

In 2010 1~5, there was no obvious change in the production of acrylic fiber enterprises in the same period of 2009. The output decreased slightly, which decreased by 0.43% compared with the same period last year, and the total volume decreased by 1 thousand and 200 tons. Imports increased considerably over the same period last year, with an increase of 19.06%. Relative to the total import volume of chemical fiber 365 thousand and 900 tons, acrylic fiber imports accounted for 22.44% of the total imports of chemical fiber, accounting for the highest proportion in recent years, but the absolute increase is relatively small, only increased by 13 thousand and 100 tons. In 2010 1~5 imported 82 thousand and 100 tons of acrylic fiber, 358 thousand and 500 tons of new resources (output + imports), and net increase of resources (new resources, exports, or apparent demand) of about 356 thousand and 200 tons, an increase of 3.28% over the same period last year. The market demand of acrylic fiber industry in China has picked up.

Forecast: there is little room for price rise.

After entering the second quarter of 2010, acrylic fibers The price of the product has reached a high level (about 22 thousand yuan / ton). According to the analysis of the relevant people, this price has a great difference with other chemical fiber products. Compared with other synthetic fiber products, there is no advantage in terms of cost performance. It is unlikely that there will be much room for growth. The price of raw acrylonitrile has entered a fairly high price zone since the second quarter of 2010.

It is estimated that the price of acrylic fiber will remain at the current level in the second half of 2010, and there is not much room for improvement. Because of the total gap in the domestic acrylonitrile, coupled with the expanding application of acrylonitrile in recent years, coupled with the current turbulence in the international economic situation, there are still many uncertainties in the price of international crude oil. The price of acrylonitrile from acrylonitrile is greatly affected by the price of crude oil, which may lead to a further rise in the price of acrylonitrile. This also indicates that the situation of domestic acrylic fiber enterprises is still not optimistic in the second half of 2010.