PTA Futures Have Continued To Fall, And The Market Has Been Digested.

Since the new high in April 27th, PTA futures continued to fall.

As of yesterday's close, PTA futures main contract 1609 reported 4758 yuan / ton, nearly 10 trading days, down 6.67%.

Insiders said that in the medium term, the supply and demand of PTA tended to be excessive. However, as the price of PTA fell, the market profits had been digested, the high processing fees were also compressed, and the short-term price continued to fall.

Since late April, domestic commodities have shown a trend of rollercoaster, and PTA futures are no exception.

The reason is Huatai futures.

Analyst Cheng Lin believes that China's economic data have improved, and the consumption of commodities has obviously rebounded, resulting in a large number of funds to push up commodities.

The turning point of the market is the adjustment of the exchange policy.

A lot of departure.

The focus of the market quickly shifted from the recent data to expectations. As commodity prices rebounded and production profits resumed, most of the commodities in the latter part of the market were on the rise of supply and consumption, and the stabilization of China's monetary policy led to a sharp fall in the price of futures.

Xu Jing, a chemical analyst with Meyer futures, also believes that PTA futures have fallen sharply under the general weakness of the fundamentals and the overall downturn of the commodity sector.

At present, the good fundamentals of PTA have been gradually digested, the high cost of processing, the pressure of warehouse receipts and the weakening of downstream demand have become the leading factors for further decline of the market.

As far as PTA is concerned, the performance of oil price is strong, and the maintenance of PX device makes PTA cost support.

However, compared with PTA supply

There is a gap.

According to insiders, from March to May, the traditional consumption peak season, polyester load remained at a high level.

Looking ahead, Xu Jing believes that oil prices are still rising, but the aromatics market is still showing signs of weakness.

Ethylene glycol has no obvious driving force after the delivery and keeps low oscillation repeatedly.

With the fall in PTA prices, profits have been digested, their high processing fees have also been compressed, and the expected period price is likely to fall sharply again in the short term.

For the PTA futures 1609 contract, Cheng Lin believes that there is uncertainty in the trend of upstream oil prices.

On the supply side, if the processing fee is maintained at more than 500 yuan / ton, the PTA enterprises will not be overhauled. The new equipment will be put into operation and the supply will be steady and steady.

In terms of consumption, the polyester load will be reduced after the peak season, and the PTA will return to the inventory accumulation stage later.

Overall, the cost side of PTA is divided. In the medium term, supply and demand are also excessive. Unless the processing fee falls below 400 yuan / ton, PTA enterprises will be overhauled.

In late April, with the delayed effect of Taiwan and Hon Bang restart, the funds were pushed up. After the resumption of production in May, it also helped the market to fall. It was reflected that the PTA processing fee was as high as 800 yuan / ton, and now it falls to less than 600 yuan / ton.

The current situation is that the cost side of PTA has not changed much, and the supply will not increase significantly in May. The consumption of polyester will not exceed the expected decline, and the average supply can still remain above 8. The supply and demand of PTA will remain tight.

It is estimated that the processing fee will be 500 yuan / ton -700 yuan / ton interval in May. After the fall of processing fee, the maintenance of BP and three lane will be delayed, and the main disadvantage is that the stock of the delivery warehouse will suppress the spot and 1609 contracts.