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PTA Supply Side Power Still Exists, Short-Term Price Continues To Warm Finishing

2021/8/16 9:51:00 0

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA spot market rebounded slightly last week (August 9-13). As of August 13, the average market price was 5330 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.29% and a year-on-year increase of 46.58%.

Recent changes of PTA plant in China

Name of enterprise	Maintenance scale (10000 tons / year)	Maintenance start time
Hailun Petrochemical 1#	one hundred and twenty	Around June 7, the technical renovation was stopped, and it was estimated to restart at the end of August
Hailun Petrochemical 2#	one hundred and twenty	Stop for about 2 weeks on July 30
Fuhaichuang	four hundred and fifty	The maintenance was carried out on July 27, the temperature began to rise on August 4, and the material was discharged on August 6
Yisheng new materials	three hundred and thirty	It stopped on July 30 and is still in commissioning
Honggang petrochemical	one hundred and fifty	About July 26, the load will be reduced by 50%, and it is estimated that the load will be maintained for one month
Zhongtai petrochemical	one hundred and twenty	Shutdown on August 5, restart date to be determined
Ningbo Taihua	one hundred and twenty	The car stopped unexpectedly in the evening of August 12 and is scheduled to restart on August 13

In terms of supply, the current operating rate of the industry is around 74%. In terms of specific units, the 1.2 million tons / year unit of Sinopec was shut down on August 5, and the restart date was to be determined; The 1.2 million T / a PTA plant of hailun Petrochemical Company will be shut down for technical transformation around June 7, and it is estimated to restart at the end of August. The other 1.2 million T / a PTA plant will be shut down for about 2 weeks on July 30; Honggang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will reduce the load by 50% on July 26, 2021, and it is estimated to maintain for about one month; The 1.2 million tons / year unit of Ningbo Taihua Chemical Co., Ltd. was accidentally shut down on the night of August 12, and it is planned to restart on August 13. Eason new materials 3.3 million tons PTA plant restart is not smooth, PTA is still in the state of inventory last week.

As of August 12, the settlement price of main contracts in the US WTI crude oil futures market rose by 1.19% weekly to US $69.09/barrel, while the settlement price of main contracts in Brent crude oil futures market rose by 0.86% to US $71.31/barrel. In terms of PX, Zhejiang Petrochemical has produced qualified products with 2.5 million tons of new PX capacity, but the load is not high, and the cost side has certain support for PTA.

Some downstream polyester factories have reduced production or planned to reduce production, resulting in poor production and sales. The operating load has dropped to around 87%, and the demand for PTA has declined, and the enthusiasm for PTA spot purchase is not so good. In terms of price, the mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have given preferential promotion, among which polyester POY (150D / 48F) offers 7500-7700 yuan / ton, down 200-300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

Business agency analysts believe that the current crude oil fundamentals are OK, there is no sustained deep fall basis for the price, the possibility of short-term wide range oscillation is large, and the support of raw material end still exists. In addition, it is understood that a mainstream PTA supplier will further reduce the proportion of contract goods supply in August from 80% to 50%, or will postpone delivery to September. Therefore, East China spot supply is still expected to be tight in the short term. However, the downstream polyester plant plans to reduce production, and the PTA demand is expected to decline. Overall, PTA supply side power still exists, short-term prices continue to warm finishing, the future market pays attention to the actual implementation of polyester factory production reduction.