PTA Or Under Pressure To Explore The Supporting Area And Pay Attention To The Enthusiasm Of Funds.

Futures: PTA2009 fell on Thursday, closing 3688 (down 38), with a total turnover of more than 7 hands and an increase in volume. The first ten funds flow: the long part concentrated and lighten up, and the concentration of the positions decreased. At present, the demand for PTA is rising and the price rises in the period of easing policy are expected. The contradiction between supply and demand of inventory is gradually improving, and the trend of opening up of valuation is increasing. Short term crude oil fluctuations affect the overall callback of chemical industry, PTA or supporting areas under pressure, pay attention to market supply and demand and policy changes expected to prevent changes in capital.

Spot: East China spot reference 3500-3650 (down), generally traded. At present, the whole plant maintains a high rate of opening up, and the pressure on social inventory is heavier. Domestic demand for polyester production increases, textile demand rebounded, and overall supply and demand contradictions tend to improve. Europe and the United States restart the economy, crude oil demand is expected to improve, maintain a strong, leading to enhanced chemical support, the overall trend. Manufacturers and traders maintain a stable price. Futures affect the spot market mentality.

Brief strategy: PTA2009 or under pressure to explore supporting areas, pay attention to market supply and demand and policy changes expected to prevent changes in funds. Band operation: wait-and-see, if you step on 3600-3650 areas to stabilize, you can try more and more. If the upper 3750 is near and above, the pressure can be more flat. Short term operation: close to the wait and see, if you step back in 3630-3670 areas to stabilize, you can gradually test more, if the upper 3730-3760 areas of pressure can be tested empty. Short term key positions: 3650, 3710.

Strategy analysis: the current monetary and fiscal easing and large water supply support the economy, hedging against the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on economic shocks. Europe and the United States restart the economy to boost market demand, crude oil continues to rise, but the United States and other places, the epidemic continues to expand worries. In China, macroeconomic regulation and control and strong and loose policies have been strengthened to stabilize economic growth. At present, PTA has a high rate of opening up, high inventory, rising demand and easing price rises. It is expected that spot prices will rise, and the trend of future recovery will increase. The medium and long term layout strategy: to underestimate the gradual distribution of the low price zone, and to focus more on the long term line.

Note: in May, social inclusion increased by 3 trillion and 190 billion, a record high in the same period. M2 growth and new RMB loans were slightly lower than expected. The FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, at least maintaining the current strength of debt purchase. Powell promised to use all the tools, saying that the economic outlook is extremely uncertain. Ministry of water resources: China has entered the flood season. 148 rivers have exceeded the flood level above the warning level, and the flood control situation is very serious. In May, retail sales of passenger cars increased by 1.8% over the same period last year, and sales of excavators increased by nearly 70% over the same period last year. Saudi Arabia will stop additional production cuts, OPEC + extended production cuts. The government's work report: concentrate on the "six stability" and "six guarantees". This year, the deficit rate will be arranged according to the arrangement of more than 3.6%, and 1 trillion yuan will be issued for the special anti epidemic national debt. The active fiscal policy should be more positive and effective, prudent monetary policy should be more flexible and moderate, and the priority policy for employment should be strengthened in all aspects. Central bank governor: maintaining broad money M2 and social financing scale growth is obviously higher than last year, reducing the real interest rate of loans. The United States increased by 18 thousand over the single day, exceeding 32 thousand in Brazil and over 12 thousand in India.